Cancer projections 2005-2035

This report predicts that between 2010-2030, the number of new cancer cases will increase by 95% for women, 120% for men and 108% overall.

In 2006 the National Cancer Registry published projections of cancer numbers to 2020, based on trends from 1994-2003 and population projections to 2036. With the availability of revised population projections and some additional years of incidence data, we have decided to revise these projections.

There have been statistically significant increases for both sexes in rates for all invasive cancers combined, both including and excluding non-melanoma skin cancer. Statistically significant increases in rate have occurred over the period 1994-2006 for lung cancer, melanoma and non-melanoma cancers of the skin, gynaecological cancers, cancers of kidney and lymphoma for women and for melanoma of skin and lymphoma in men.

For women, there were significant overall decreases in rate for oesophageal and stomach cancer, and for men there were decreases in rate for cancers of the stomach, lung and bladder.

The time trends for a number of cancers changed during the period studied. Cancer of the breast in women showed a slow rate of increase from 1994 to 1999 (1.3% per year) which accelerated to 5.1% per year in 1999-2002, and then fell by 2.0% per year between 2002 and 2006. Cancer of the prostate increased rapidly (7.9% per year) between 1994 and 2004 but appears now to be falling in rate. For men, cancers of the head and neck, non-melanoma skin cancer, kidney cancer and leukaemia all showed reversals of the incidence trend during the period studied. With the exception of female breast and non-melanoma skin cancer, the more recent trends were not statistically significant.