from 1,000,000 to 850,000 (a 15% reduction) by 2000. Although data are not yet available for some countries it is estimated that over 1000,000 people died of cancer in the EU in 2000, and that therefore the target, as set out, has not been achieved. In Ireland, there were 6815 deaths in 1987 and 7666 in 2000, an increase of 12.5%. So, has the programme been a failure in Ireland?
The difficulty in deciding comes from the changes in our population which have come about in the past 15 years. Our population has grown substantially and has also aged, both of which would have increased the number of cancer deaths, even if everything else had remained the same. Based on the increased size of the population, cancer deaths would have increased by 8% between 1985 and 2000, and allowing for ageing as well, we would have expected deaths to have increased by 19%. So, although the number of deaths has increased, the increase is 7% less than if no action had been taken. So, while this falls short of the hoped-for decrease of 15%, it represents a saving of 500 lives in 2000.
When we look at the impact on younger people, the effect of cancer prevention and better treatment is even more striking. Cancer deaths in the under 65s in 2000 were 18% fewer than would have been expected and in the under 15s they were 56% fewer.
Table. Cancer deaths in Ireland 1985-2000
year | Number of deaths | Death per 100,000 | Deaths per 100,000 (adjusted for age) |
All ages |
1985 | 6815 | 193 | 219 |
2000 | 7666 | 202 | 205 |
% change | 12 | 5 | -7 |
Under 65 |
1985 | 2270 | 72 | 99 |
2000 | 2258 | 67 | 81 |
% change | -0.5 | -7 | -18 |
Under 15 |
1985 | 37 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
2000 | 13 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
% change | -65 | -56 | -57 |